Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Indian Rupee Strong on Fed rate cut hope

The MCX-SX INR December futures opened stronger on dollar weakness and expectation of Fed rate cut. Asian markets were mixed in the morning and Indian stock markets opened slightly higher and moved in a range bound manner.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 0.5. One-month offshore Non-Deliverable Forward contracts were quoting at 48.07/22 per dollar, weaker than the onshore spot rate, indicating a bearish near-term outlook for the rupee.

Indian stock markets opened slightly higher and closed around 1.2% higher. Strength seen in stock markets coupled with lower oil prices could support rupee in the near term. Strength seen in stock markets could see some fresh foreign capital inflows in coming days. FII’s have been net buyers of about $380 million shares in December. Oil prices around $45 could see larger supply cut by OPEC at Dec 17 meeting.

Crude oil dropped 4% yesterday on persistent worries of a deepening slump.Dollar weakness across the currency basket on expectation that US Federal Reserve will cut interest rate to near zero saw support being provided to rupee.

Fed rate cut would be a positive sign for rupee and it could prompt a further upside. Key interest rates in the country could continue to ease in the coming time, due to the softening of inflation, resulting in the possibility
of more credit injection to the economy.

MCX-SX INR December’08 futures prices closed stronger towards 47.99. MCX-SX INR December’08 futures moved in a range of 48.30 and 47.892 during the day. Supports are at 47.50/47.40 followed by 47.10/47. Resistances are at 48.20/48.30 followed by an important 48.90/49 range. MCX –SX futures registered a volume of 877.74cr all contracts put together.

MCX-SX INR January’09 futures closed towards 48.14 and registered a decrease in volume by 26.38%. The MCX-SX INR January’09 futures printed an open interest of 17601.

Spot rupee immediate Supports are at 47.4/47.50 levels being a rising channel support followed by 46.70/46.80 Resistance is at 48/48.10 followed by crucial resistance at 48.50/48.60.

MCX-SX INR futures active December contract registered volume decrease of around 9.60% over the previous session.

Courtesy: commodityonline.com

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